Lundin Mining revises Caserones 2026 guidance

Extreme weather is becoming an increasingly material operational risk for the global mining industry. In northern Chile, Lundin Mining is confronting that reality after a second severe winter storm disrupted recovery efforts at its Caserones copper mine and forced the company to revise its 2026 production outlook. The latest storm began on August 13, bringing heavy rainfall at lower elevations and unusually intense snowfall and winds at higher altitudes across the Atacama region. It followed an earlier weather event that had already caused a power outage at Caserones between July 18 and July 30.

President and CEO Jack Lundin described the situation as unprecedented: “Northern Chile has experienced an unprecedented series of winter storms, with significant impacts on communities across the Atacama region and on our operations at Caserones.”

Infrastructure damage delays the return to full production

The second storm proved particularly significant because it interrupted a recovery already underway. On August 14, Caserones suffered another power outage after severe winds and heavy snowfall re-damaged a transmission tower affected by the previous storm. Repair crews have been mobilized, while backup generators continue to maintain critical infrastructure. Lundin Mining expects full power restoration by the end of the week, followed by a gradual and safety-focused ramp-up of operations. As Lundin explained, “The safety of our people remains our highest priority,” while thanking employees, contractors and emergency teams for their resilience during the disruption.

Copper guidance moves lower

The cumulative impact is now visible in Lundin Mining’s full-year outlook.

Caserones’ 2026 copper production guidance has been reduced from 130,000-140,000 t to 120,000-130,000 t, while expected cash costs have increased from US$2.05-2.25/lb to US$2.15–2.35/lb.

At group level, consolidated copper guidance has consequently moved from 310,000-335,000 t to 300,000-325,000 t, with cash cost guidance increasing to US$1.95-2.15/lb. Candelaria, however, is still expected to achieve its original full-year production target of 135,000-145,000 t.

A wider lesson for global mining

The Caserones disruption illustrates an issue extending well beyond a single mine.

Mining operations depend on complex networks of power transmission, roads, water systems and processing infrastructure. As extreme weather events challenge these systems, operational resilience is becoming an increasingly important part of mine planning and risk management.

For Lundin Mining, whose strategic ambition is to become a top-ten global copper producer, the immediate priority is safely restoring Caserones. Longer term, the events in Chile provide another reminder that the future of copper supply will depend not only on geology, investment and permitting, but also on the industry’s ability to build operations and infrastructure resilient enough to withstand increasingly demanding environmental conditions.